This week, we bring you last-minute baseball draft/auction tips from FDH Managing Partner Rick Morris.
At the end of any draft prep season, I always like to bring the focus back to the basics. Having had the auction for my keeper league on Saturday and the draft for my non-keeper league next Saturday, I can mix in my own perspectives to make my points even clearer.
^ Above all, stay focused on value above all else. You win by squeezing value more effectively than anyone else, period. It’s repetitive on our part, but I make no apologies for that, because it’s the sole non-negotiable element of your draft prep and it’s something that far too many people lose sight of at the worst times. Now, for those who are looking to scratch an excitement itch or don the wheeler-dealer garb, this may not be fun and fulfilling. As for me, I get my fun and fulfillment from winning (12-team mixed non-keeper league title last year, 20-team mixed keeper league title the year before). Hopefully it’s not seen as a jerk move to drop those credentials, because there is a point here. Even with the ’09 title, even being the one person in the league actively participating in the fantasy industry via the FDH brand, I was delighted to see on Saturday that I can still lurk in the weeds because my moves are boring and decidedly un-flashy relative to many of my competitors. And frankly, if I can still lurk at this point and not have the target on me that my flashier league-mates do, then I’ll always be able to since I will never change the playbook. Advantage, me. Let others try the attention-grabbing attempts to reinvent the wheel. Steady wins the race.
^ The previous point is not to suggest abandoning all efforts to find more effective means of accomplishing your goals – just to keep value in mind when doing so. I’ll furnish another example from Saturday’s auction. Top minor league players in our league get picked over well before they first make the bigs, due to the fact that you can hang on to them for up to 10 years with our format – which calls for five auction rounds, followed by a straight draft in which players can be procured for only $1. In recent years, not only are the top prospects snarfed up even before their minor league peaks in the draft rounds, they are also subject in many instances to insane bidding in the auction rounds. Truly, it is difficult to carry a player for a few years at $20 or above before they even make their major league debut, so I have tried at all costs to avoid this necessity. Although I tried to get some top minor league players in the draft rounds on Saturday, I was unsuccessful – so I went all-in on a strategy I have dabbled in before: I took five prospects who will be in this June’s draft, four college players and one high-school baller. Will they all pan out? Probably not; the burn rate on prospects is significant. But they’ve all got high ceilings and they won’t cost me an arm and a leg if I have to cut them. This was the kind of creativity we endorse.
^ Think about the specifics of your situation ahead of time as much as you can, not merely the league rules and parameters (one would hope you don’t need me to drill that part into your heads!), but any other relevant features. In the case of my auction, I familiarized myself with not only my cap number and needs going into Saturday, but those of all of my leaguemates so that I would know who my biggest threats were for the holes I had to fill. For this Saturday’s draft, my co-owner and I are able to spend the week contemplating the realities of our draft position (7 – and on a personal note, I really hate being 6th or 7th in a 12-team league since you can’t anticipate your next pick very well and that just bothers me) and the players most likely to drop to us in the early rounds. Look at the possibilities (including tendencies of your fellow owners, which I know very well in both of my leagues from many years of jousting with them) and just spend some time picking apart some options from different angles. For example, it’s no secret that FDH is higher on Tulow than most in the industry this year. He was critical to our title last year and given our competitors’ tendencies, we feel that we have a good shot to get him at 7. If we do, then we fill a need at the shallowest position and move on from there. If not, we’ll go with a Plan B or Plan C that we hatch during the week. Ruminate on all the angles. You wouldn’t be playing this game if you didn’t love it. Enjoy – and go take some caysh from your friends!
Chaos and insanity rule the first week of the NCAA men’s tournament, but oh how sweet it is to still be alive when the sun rises the morning after the second round.
The sweet sixteen is about to commence for the 2011 college basketball season, with a mixed bag of obvious favorites and improbable low seeds moving forward. This year’s tournament is unique in that at least one underdog has emerged from each region. The West is the closest in terms of favorites coming out of the pack (with fifth-seeded Arizona the lowest seed in their bracket), while the Southwest only has one team with a single digit seed (Kansas at number one) in their final four.
Getting to this point in the tournament has been easy for a few, but most kept their fans on pins and needles.
All of the top seeds escaped the first two rounds with double digits wins (except for Pittsburg, who got upset, and Duke, which won their second round game by two points). Arizona won both of their first two games by a total margin of five points, while Butler topped both opponents by a total of three points (including a controversial win over top seed Pittsburg).
The four Cinderella stories left in the tournament created the most buzz of all in the first four days.
Eleventh-seeded Marquette escaped past Xavier in the first round quite easily, but survived an even tougher challenge with a four-point win over third-ranked Syracuse. Florida State, a tenth seed, had a totally opposite first two games of the tournament from Marquette with a tougher challenge against #7 Texas A&M (squeaking by seven in the win) than #2 Notre Dame (a cruising fourteen-point victory).
After twelfth-seeded Richmond shocked Vanderbilt fans with a win by three points, they faced off against another underdog in thirteenth ranked Morehead St. They would come out of that game unscathed by beating down the Eagles by seventeen. VCU’s play has been the most impressive of all; first by winning a play in game against USC for the eleventh-seed, then torching favorites Georgetown and Purdue eighteen a piece en route to the Sweet Sixteen.
Make no mistake though, despite the degree of difficulty on "The Road To The Final Four", the ride only gets bumpier with higher seeds waiting on the horizon and upsets around every corner.
Here’s a look at the storyline for each region:
East Region: Ohio State’s For The Taking
Aside from Marquette, this region has gone according to par and that’s got to be an advantage for Ohio St.While others will maintain that doesn’t work in their favor, Ohio State will take facing young, inexperienced teams in the next two rounds. Kentucky was a number one seed last year, but the core of that team left for the NBA. Although they were able to reload with talent, with players like G Brandon Knight and F Terrence Jones, the Wildcats don’t have the depth to contend with the Buckeyes nor the size to take on big man Jared Sullinger.
North Carolina is also dealing with experience deficiency within their personnel and will hope to get through Marquette with freshman F Harrison Barnes and Sophomore F John Henson. The Golden Eagles will be ready for the game, having already beaten two higher seeds, and stage an all out war to advance, but the Tar Heels will find a way to prevail forward.
A convincing win might go far for North Carolina, but Ohio State will prove to be too much for Roy Williams’ team and emerge from this division unscathed as a Final Four contestant.
Projected Winner: Ohio State
West Region: Hardest Bracket To Declare A Victory
Both games in the third round can go either way and will be a hard fought battle for all four teams that will only get tougher for the final two.Duke was lucky in the second round but they will have to play better if they hope to escape. Arizona has already won two close games, showing that they are unafraid to take the game into the last moments of regulation. F Derrick Williams has been impressive by getting to the line 24 times in both games. Yet, the lack of an interior defense may be the Achilles heel of the team with a Blue Devils team that loves to penetrate with G Nolan Smith and G Kyrie Irving.
Kemba Walker has depleted his tank in order to keep his Connecticut team alive. Even after injuring his wrist and hip, the star guard carried his team past Cincinnati. Sadly though, his impressive run will halt at this stage with a more complete squad in San Diego State. The Aztecs have a stronger supporting cast surrounding sophomore sensation Kawhi Leonard.
With Duke and San Diego in the final, expect a close, wire-to-wire championship that may will need extra time to reach completion. When the dust settles, the Aztecs will be the ones on the ladder cutting down the nets.
Projected Winner: San Diego State
Southwest Region: A Favorite Vs Three Cinderellas
Of all the regions, this is the most intriguing.With Kansas as the only single-seed in the bracket, penciling them into the Final Four appears simple. Their first opponent will be Richmond, a team that is known for knocking off favorites. In order to continue in that tradition, the Spiders will need their stars, G Kevin Anderson and F Justin Harper, to be on their A-game. Yet, the dream will end here for Richmond with a Jayhawk roster that consists of a high level of talent and depth.
It’s been a long week for VCU, who finally got a break after their last win. The team played out of their minds against Purdue, with six players reaching double-digit points and stellar play from their undersized leader, five foot, ten inch G Joey Rodriguez. Florida State won both of their games with strong, team defense (holding both opponents to under 32% from the field). This will be tough for both teams, but VCU will cool down with the long layoff and Florida State comes away victorious with their tough defense.
Kansas will surface as the winners of the Southwest, with a defiant win over Florida State and a berth into the Final Four.
Projected Winner: Kansas
Southeast Region: No Number One To Stand In The Way
With Pittsburg’s demise, this region is up for grabs.Butler will hope that the win over Pittsburg and last year’s magic is still with them heading into the Sweet Sixteen. It will only get harder when they face off against Wisconsin and their leaders, F Jon Leuer and G Jordan Taylor. Taylor will need to shoot better than he did in the second round if they hope to top F Matt Howard and the Bulldogs. The magic continues to rain down upon Butler, who will knock off another favorite in the Badgers in this game.
BYU will hope that G Jimmer Fredette will continue his magical shooting stroke from all over the floor. The college superstar lit up the first two rounds and will hope he can continue that against second seed Florida. The Gators’ overcame inexperience by riding G Erving Walker’s hot shooting to win the first two games convincingly. Both teams will make this match up a shootout, in which Fredette will stand out above the rest and lead his Cougars to the Southeast championship.
The magic will run out for Butler in the championship game, Fredette’s ability to fill up the stat sheet will be a deficit they cannot overcome. BYU will march forward and be the final team to dance into the Final Four.
Projected Winner: BYU
If you play for the Green Bay Packers or are a fan of theirs, you’ve got to like the idea that you might be champions for a longer period than previous Lombardi trophy winners.
When it comes to post season battles in sports, nothing compares to craziness that kicks off during the third month of the year.
College Hoops Bracket Draft
It's that time of year again as FDH brings you our college hoops bracket draft.
First, here's the guidelines:
^ 2 points for an opening-round win
^ 4 points for a second-round win
^ 6 points for a third-round win
^ 8 points for a regional championship win
^ 10 points for winning a national semifinal game
^ 12 points for winning the national championship
Also, there are bonus points for having lower seeds win:
^ 2 points for each win by a team seeded 5th through 9th in a region
^ 5 points for each win by a team seeded 10th through 16th in a region
We recommend a six-team draft with a nine-round standard serpentine draft.
College Hoops Bracket Draft Board
TOP TIER
1 Kansas
2 Ohio State
3 Florida
4 UConn
5 Duke
6 Notre Dame
7 Purdue
8 Syracuse
9 North Carolina
10 Utah State
11 Pittsburgh
SECOND TIER
12 San Diego State
13 Kentucky
14 Texas
15 Kansas State
16 Gonzaga
17 Louisville
THIRD TIER
18 Michigan State
19 Butler
20 BYU
21 Xavier
22 Vanderbilt
23 St. John’s
24 West Virginia
25 Belmont
26 Arizona
27 George Mason
28 Wisconsin
29 Penn State
30 Illinois
31 Missouri
32 Georgetown
33 Temple
34 Texas A&M
35 Washington
36 UNLV
37 Old Dominion
38 Georgia
39 Villanova
40 Florida State
41 Cincinnati
42 Tennessee
43 Michigan
44 Marquette
45 UCLA
FDH Managing Partner Rick Morris’ Bracket
EAST REGION
FIRST ROUND
1 Ohio State over 16 UTSA or Alabama State
8 George Mason over 9 Villanova
5 West Virginia over 12 UAB or Clemson
4 Kentucky over 13 Princeton
6 Xavier over 11 Marquette
3 Syracuse over 14 Indiana State
7 Washington over 10 Georgia
2 North Carolina over 15 Long Island
SECOND ROUND
1 Ohio State over 8 George Mason
4 Kentucky over 5 West Virginia
3 Syracuse over 6 Xavier
2 North Carolina over 7 Washington
THIRD ROUND
1 Ohio State over 4 Kentucky
3 Syracuse over 2 North Carolina
REGIONAL FINAL
1 Ohio State over 3 Syracuse
WEST REGION
FIRST ROUND
1 Duke over 16 Hampton
9 Tennessee over 8 Michigan
5 Arizona over 12 Memphis
4 Texas over 13 Oakland
11 Missouri over 6 Cincinnati
3 UConn over 14 Bucknell
10 Penn State over 7 Temple
2 San Diego State over 15 Northern Colorado
SECOND ROUND
1 Duke over 9 Tennessee
4 Texas over 5 Arizona
3 UConn over 11 Missouri
2 San Diego State over 10 Penn State
THIRD ROUND
1 Duke over 4 Texas
3 UConn over 2 San Diego State
REGIONAL FINAL
3 UConn over 1 Duke
SOUTHWEST REGION
FIRST ROUND
1 Kansas over 16 Boston U
9 Illinois over 8 UNLV
5 Vanderbilt over 12 Richmond
4 Louisville over 13 Morehead State
6 Georgetown over 11 USC/VCU
3 Purdue over 14 St. Peter’s
7 Texas A&M over 10 Florida State
2 Notre Dame over 15 Akron
SECOND ROUND
1 Kansas over 9 Illinois
4 Louisville over 5 Vanderbilt
3 Purdue over 6 Georgetown
2 Notre Dame over 7 Texas A&M
THIRD ROUND
1 Kansas over 4 Louisville
2 Notre Dame over 3 Purdue
REGIONAL FINAL
1 Kansas over 2 Notre Dame
SOUTHEAST REGION
FIRST ROUND
1 Pittsburgh over 16 UNC-Asheville or Arkansas-Little Rock
8 Butler over 9 Old Dominion
12 Utah State over 5 Kansas State
13 Belmont over 5 Wisconsin
11 Gonzaga over 6 St. John’s
3 BYU over 14 Wofford
10 Michigan State over 7 UCLA
2 Florida over 15 UCSB
SECOND ROUND
1 Pittsburgh over 8 Butler
12 Utah State over 13 Belmont
11 Gonzaga over 3 BYU
2 Florida over 15 UCSB
THIRD ROUND
12 Utah State over 1 Pittsburgh
2 Florida over 11 Gonzaga
REGIONAL FINAL
2 Florida over 12 Utah State
NATIONAL SEMIFINALS
Ohio State over UConn
Kansas over Florida
NATIONAL FINALS
Kansas over Ohio State
